Child Welfare Policy Guidance

Actuarial Risk Assessment and Reassessment Guide

The actuarial risk assessment (ARA) is completed when child abuse and/or neglect has been alleged. It is a research-based tool and statistical method of estimating risk of future maltreatment. The ARA differentiates cases with intensive, high, moderate, or low classification categories. The difference between risk levels is substantial. High risk families have significantly higher rates than low risk families of subsequent child abuse and/or neglect reports and substantiation. They are also more often involved in serious abuse or neglect incidents. Research demonstrates targeting resources to families in the high and intensive risk categories significantly reduces their recidivism rates.